AUR

Cluster: Commercial Deployment & Operational Scaling

Commitment: Commercialize the Aurora Driver through a Driver as a Service (DaaS) model and launch Aurora Driver for Freight with expansion into passenger and local delivery markets (Published: 2025-02-14)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Recent updates (2025-02-14 MD&A and supporting evidence from the Q4 2024 Earnings Call transcript on 2025-02-13) clearly confirm the commercialization strategy via a DaaS model. The consistent messaging across the most recent documents substantiates progress toward launching the Aurora Driver for Freight and extending it into additional markets.

Progress:* 2025-02-14 – MD&A confirms plans to commercialize the Aurora Driver via DaaS.* 2025-02-13 – Q4 Earnings Call transcript reinforces the launch strategy.

Commitment: Launch the first driverless trucks hauling customer loads between Dallas and Houston in April 2025 with initial operations using up to 10 trucks and achieving up to 90% of commercial loads as 100% API loads (Published: 2025-02-13)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Recent evidence, including the Q4 2024 Earnings Call (2025-02-13), highlights preparations for the April 2025 launch on the Dallas–Houston corridor. The details about operational capacity and performance targets are consistent, indicating that the initiative is progressing as planned.

Progress:* 2025-02-13 – Earnings Call transcript notes near-finalization of plans for the April 2025 launch.* 2024-10-30 – Earlier updates mention commercial launch timelines, now superseded by the February 2025 evidence.

Commitment: Execute a planned Commercial Launch of the Aurora Driver, targeting an aggregate Autonomy Performance Indicator (API) of approximately 90% for commercial loads, with expansion to tens of trucks by the end of 2025 (Published: 2024-10-30; note: later commitments in 2025 override earlier indicated timelines)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: While the original timeline was set in October 2024, later updates (notably from February 2025) have refined the commercial launch details. The continuous emphasis on achieving a 90% API and scaling operations supports that the revised targets remain in focus.

Progress:* 2025-02-13 – Recent discussions reiterate the commercial launch plans with updated targets.* 2024-10-30 – Earlier commitment noted the goal; later evidence confirms those details remain on track.

Commitment: Expand operations with commercial pilots on key routes (e.g., Fort Worth–Phoenix) and maintain high on-time performance for pilot customer loads (Published: 2024-10-30 and 2024-09-05)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multiple documents across different periods (2024-09-05 and 2024-10-30) highlight initiatives to expand pilot operations on key routes like Fort Worth–Phoenix. Recent updates reinforce the expectation of rigorous on-time performance, indicating steady progress in operational scaling.

Progress:* 2024-09-05 – Announcement of route expansion and pilot program details.* 2024-10-30 – Earnings call updates reaffirm the commercial pilots and route expansion plans.

Commitment: Finalize a Commercial Launch commitment and secure multi-year contractual engagements with customers to lock in a significant portion of 2025 capacity (Published: 2024-07-31 and 2024-05-08)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Evidence from mid-2024 documents and shareholder communications shows that significant customer contracts have been secured, supporting a robust launch commitment. This commitment is reinforced by continuous updates regarding customer engagements and pilot successes.

Progress:* 2024-07-31 – Shareholder letter details multi-year contracts and confirmed capacity.* 2024-05-08 – Earlier commitments established a foundation later built upon with new contractual engagements.

Commitment: Deployment of thousands of autonomous trucks integrated with the Aurora Driver system beginning in 2027, following a structured partnership roadmap (Published: 2024-01-05)

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: The long-term deployment strategy for thousands of trucks by 2027 has been clearly outlined in early documents and is supported by partnerships announced later (e.g., with Continental and NVIDIA). However, as this target is set further in the future, progress remains contingent on completing several interim milestones.

Progress:* 2024-01-05 – Initial roadmap and design finalization laid out the 2027 production target.* 2025-01-06 – Recent partnership details (with Continental and NVIDIA) confirm the long-term production plans.

Cluster: Partnerships & Collaborations

Commitment: Engage in partnerships with OEMs, Tier 1 automotive suppliers, and fleet operators to commercialize the Aurora Driver (Published: 2025-02-14)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Recent updates (2025-02-14 MD&A and related financial discussions) illustrate active engagement with multiple industry partners, underpinning the commercialization effort. The collaboration strategy is clearly prioritized, with evidence aligning to support these initiatives.

Progress:* 2025-02-14 – MD&A confirms ongoing partnerships with OEMs and tier-one suppliers.* 2025-02-13 – Earnings call details include partner collaborations supporting the Aurora Driver.

Commitment: Integrate NVIDIA’s DRIVE Thor system-on-a-chip into Aurora Driver hardware and form a long-term alliance with Continental and NVIDIA to scale driverless truck deployments (Published: 2025-02-13 and 2025-01-06; the February 2025 details supersede earlier generic commitments)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 94%

Analysis: The recent partnership announcements from February 2025 and January 2025 provide strong evidence of the integration of NVIDIA’s DRIVE Thor and the expanded alliance with Continental. The updated details confirm that these initiatives are progressing as planned, superseding earlier versions.

Progress:* 2025-02-13 – Earnings call reiterates integration with NVIDIA’s DRIVE Thor.* 2025-01-06 – Partnership announcement confirms long-term collaboration with Continental and NVIDIA.

Commitment: Collaborate with Volvo to launch the first production-ready Volvo VNL Autonomous Truck, integrating redundant safety systems and establishing high-volume manufacturing capabilities (Published: 2024-05-20)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: The launch of the production-ready Volvo VNL Autonomous Truck has been clearly documented (2024-05-20). The collaboration emphasizes the integration of advanced safety systems and manufacturing capabilities, with no conflicting updates reported.

Progress:* 2024-05-20 – Volvo VNL Autonomous Truck announcement confirms collaboration details.* 2024-07-31 (and later updates) support the continued partnership momentum in this area.

Commitment: Launch the Premier Autonomy program in partnership with Uber Freight to provide priority capacity access, ensuring integration of the Aurora Driver into broader freight networks (Published: 2024-07-31 and 2024-06-25)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Multiple updates, including the official launch announcements and shareholder communications, indicate that the Premier Autonomy program with Uber Freight is well underway. The evidence cites sustained progress in integrating the Aurora Driver into the freight network with priority capacity access.

Progress:* 2024-06-25 – Initial announcement of the Premier Autonomy program outlines the strategic partnership with Uber Freight.* 2024-07-31 – Follow-up communications affirm the program’s advancement and its integration with broader freight networks.

Cluster: Safety, Regulatory & Risk Management

Commitment: Complete the safety case for key launch lanes (e.g., Dallas to Houston) with a target 100% safety completeness metric prior to commercial launches (Published: 2025-02-13)

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 82%

Analysis: Recent documents (2025-02-13) indicate significant progress on the safety case for the Dallas–Houston launch lane, with metrics approaching the 100% target. However, earlier updates (e.g., 2024-03-14) showed slightly lower completion percentages, and while progress is strong, full completion remains to be formally confirmed.

Progress:* 2025-02-13 – Earnings call mentions near-finalization (reporting 99% ARM) for the safety case.* 2024-03-14 – Earlier update indicated the safety case was approximately 93% complete.

Commitment: Maintain a robust Safety Management System, including independent safety functions that are regularly reviewed by specialized boards, as affirmed by TÜV SÜD’s audit (Published: 2024-07-30)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The TÜV SÜD audit completed on 2024-07-30 provides strong independent validation of Aurora’s Safety Management System. This audit confirms that the company’s safety functions are both robust and regularly reviewed, with no conflicting information from later updates.

Progress:* 2024-07-30 – TÜV SÜD audit report endorses the effectiveness and independence of the safety functions.* 2024-07-31 – Supplementary communications reinforce the commitment to rigorous safety practices.

Commitment: Engage continuously with regulatory bodies to shape a favorable framework for autonomous trucking operations and support the permitting process (Published: 2025-02-13; additional regulatory engagement mentioned in documents from mid-2024 reinforces this commitment)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Documentation from February 2025, supported by additional mid-2024 updates, clearly shows active engagement with regulators. The continuous dialogue with regulatory bodies is aimed at securing a supportive framework for permitting and operations.

Progress:* 2025-02-13 – Recent earnings commentary underscores ongoing regulatory engagement.* Mid-2024 – Earlier updates detail sustained interaction with policymakers and regulators.

Commitment: Achieve a complete Safety Case for self-driving vehicles to operate on public roads and finalize redundancies in autonomous truck designs (Published: 2024-03-14)

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: The 2024-03-14 presentation highlighted that the Safety Case was nearing completion (reported at approximately 93%). While progress is evident and significant redundancies have been worked into truck designs, the safety case has yet to reach full 100% completion as per the target.

Progress:* 2024-03-14 – Initial update documented a 93% completion rate for the Safety Case.* 2025-02-13 – More recent discussions indicate continued progress, though full completion is pending.

Cluster: Technology & Product Development

Commitment: Commercialize the Aurora Driver and develop associated hardware products, including next-generation kits planned for introduction in 2025 and scalable production starting in 2027 (Published: 2025-02-14 and 2024-05-08, with the more current production roadmap from 2025 overriding some earlier timelines)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 94%

Analysis: Recent updates clearly emphasize that the commercialization of the Aurora Driver, along with the development of next-generation hardware products, is proceeding according to a revised production roadmap. The integration of more current information from 2025 confirms that the plans are up to date.

Progress:* 2025-02-14 – Latest MD&A discusses the commercialization strategy and updated production plans.* 2024-05-08 – Earlier commitments set the stage, now revised by recent updates.

Commitment: Open an advanced lidar research and testing facility to boost the continued development of proprietary FirstLight Lidar technology (Published: 2024-12-12)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The opening of the advanced lidar research and testing facility, documented on 2024-12-12, demonstrates Aurora’s commitment to advancing its proprietary FirstLight Lidar technology. The facility’s inauguration confirms that this critical development milestone has been achieved.

Progress:* 2024-12-12 – Opening of the Bozeman facility confirms the initiative.* Subsequent communications reinforce the facility’s role in accelerating technology development.

Commitment: Finalize the design and architecture of the Aurora Driver hardware and fallback system, industrializing autonomous hardware kits at scale ahead of mass production (Published: 2024-01-05)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: The design and architecture for the Aurora Driver hardware and fallback system were finalized as of 2024-01-05. This milestone, in conjunction with subsequent partnership announcements, confirms that the industrialization process is proceeding as planned.

Progress:* 2024-01-05 – Design finalization and roadmap for mass production were established.* Later partnership updates support and build on this technical foundation.

Commitment: Integrate diverse self-driving technologies (e.g., NVIDIA’s DRIVE Thor) into Aurora’s self-driving platform for versatile deployment across multiple vehicle types (Published: 2025-01-06 and 2024-09-10)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 94%

Analysis: Integration of multiple self-driving technologies, including NVIDIA’s DRIVE Thor, is well documented in both the January 2025 and September 2024 updates. These communications affirm that the platform is being built for versatile deployment across different vehicle types, with recent details overriding earlier generic statements.

Progress:* 2025-01-06 – Partnership announcement confirms integration with NVIDIA’s DRIVE Thor.* 2024-09-10 – Earlier presentation highlights versatile deployment of self-driving technologies.

Cluster: Financial Management & Capital Strategies

Commitment: Maintain sufficient liquidity and raise additional capital to support development and commercialization, with a focus on a 12‐month runway (Published: 2025-02-14)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 94%

Analysis: The most recent financial disclosures (2025-02-14) indicate that Aurora continues to maintain robust liquidity and is well positioned to support its near-term operations and commercialization efforts. The capital strategy is reinforced by strong cash positions and disciplined spending.

Progress:* 2025-02-14 – MD&A confirms sufficient liquidity and a 12‐month runway.* Supplementary updates from shareholder letters affirm robust capital management.

Commitment: Successfully execute multiple public offerings, including an upsized offering that raised approximately $483 million and a proposed offering of up to $350 million, to fortify the company’s capital base (Published: 2024-08-02, 2024-08-01, and 2024-07-31)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Public offering milestones, as detailed in the August 2024 documents, have successfully raised the targeted capital and confirm that the company’s strategy to fortify its capital base is on track. The updated figures and conditions in later releases further validate this commitment.

Progress:* 2024-08-02 – Announcement of an upsized public offering raising approximately $483 million.* 2024-08-01 – Pricing announcement supports the capital raise.* 2024-07-31 – Additional shareholder communications reinforce financial discipline and capital strategy.

Commitment: Enforce strict financial discipline with targeted quarterly cash usage, ensuring operational sustainability (Published: 2024-07-31 and 2024-05-08)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Evidence from mid-2024 documents consistently emphasizes strict financial discipline and targeted quarterly cash usage, which supports overall operational sustainability. There is a clear, consistent narrative across multiple updates confirming the company’s financial management.

Progress:* 2024-07-31 – Shareholder communication details targeted quarterly cash usage.* 2024-05-08 – Earlier financial guidance reinforces the commitment to disciplined cash use.

Cluster: Sustainability & Environmental Impact

Commitment: Advance autonomous trucking technology to improve energy efficiency by up to 32% compared to traditional trucking, addressing greenhouse gas emissions (Published: 2024-04-30)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The research white paper released on 2024-04-30 explicitly states that autonomous trucking can improve energy efficiency by up to 32%. This measurable target is well supported by the technical details provided, and no conflicting updates have emerged.

Progress:* 2024-04-30 – White paper confirms a 32% improvement in energy efficiency over traditional trucking.

Commitment: Optimize fuel consumption through autonomous operational strategies such as eco-driving, minimizing idling, and optimizing highway speeds, with specific fuel reduction targets (Published: 2024-04-30)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The same white paper from 2024-04-30 provides specific details on optimizing fuel consumption through various autonomous operational strategies. The focus on eco-driving and reducing idling directly supports the commitment’s targets.

Progress:* 2024-04-30 – White paper details strategies and targets for fuel efficiency improvements.

Commitment: Commit to the broader societal impact of enhancing safety, accessibility, and reliability in transportation while contributing positively to environmental objectives (Published: 2024-08-27 and 2024-05-07)

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Multiple communications (2024-08-27 and 2024-05-07) highlight Aurora’s commitment to societal impact, emphasizing safety, accessibility, and environmental benefits. The consistent narrative across these recent updates demonstrates ongoing progress toward these broader objectives.

Progress:* 2024-08-27 – Announcement at the Goldman Sachs event reinforces societal and environmental objectives.* 2024-05-07 – Additional communications underscore a commitment to enhancing transportation reliability and sustainability.