OKLO

Regulatory Events

Catalyst: NRC Pre-Application Readiness Assessment & COLA Submission for the Aurora Powerhouse

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Beginning late March 2025; formal submission planned later in 2025
Impact: Securing regulatory clearance is critical for Oklo’s approach to deploying its advanced nuclear technology. A successful readiness assessment and subsequent COLA submission will unlock further project approvals and set the stage for commercial operations.
Reasoning: Document 2 (Published on 2025-03-24, Engagement with U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission) states that Oklo is engaging with the NRC for a Pre-Application Readiness Assessment for its COLA for the Aurora Powerhouse, with the assessment scheduled to begin in late March 2025. Document 11 (Published on 2024-11-14, Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript) further indicates that Oklo anticipates submitting its combined license application for its Idaho project next year. Cross‑document details confirm an upcoming regulatory milestone.

Catalyst: Commencement of DOE–Led Site Investigations for the First Commercial Advanced Fission Power Plant

Certainty: 90% | Timing: To commence following the finalized Memorandum of Agreement (MOA); initiated shortly after September 2024
Impact: Successful site investigations, including geotechnical assessments and environmental surveys, are essential to validate site viability and maintain deployment timelines for Oklo's first commercial powerhouse.
Reasoning: Document 15 (Published on 2024-09-25, Finalization of Agreement with the Department of Energy for Site Investigations) explains that Oklo has finalized a MOA with the DOE to conduct site investigations at its preferred Idaho site. This sets in motion the critical work required before construction can begin.

Growth Opportunities

Catalyst: Feasibility Study for Co-Location of Lightbridge’s Fuel Fabrication Facility

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Following the recently signed MOU, with study details pending
Impact: The study will explore synergistic opportunities for advanced nuclear waste recycling and could significantly reduce upfront capital expenditures by co-locating facilities, thus accelerating commercialization.
Reasoning: Document 8 (Published on 2025-01-28, Memorandum of Understanding for Co-Location of Commercial Fuel Fabrication Facilities) details an MOU between Lightbridge Corporation and Oklo Inc. to conduct a feasibility study for co-location opportunities, indicating an actionable future step.

Catalyst: Implementation of Phased Power Model for Data Centers

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Execution expected within approximately 24 months from announcement
Impact: The phased model, which starts with immediate deployment of natural gas generators and transitions to Oklo's Aurora powerhouses, addresses immediate energy needs while establishing a long-term pathway to clean, reliable energy for data centers.
Reasoning: Document 9 (Published on 2025-01-17, Partnership Announcement for Power Solutions in Data Centers) outlines the three-stage power model to transition from natural gas to nuclear energy, indicating clear execution plans in the near‐ to mid‑term.

Catalyst: Commencement of Commercial Operations of the First Reactor

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Expected in late 2027
Impact: Delivering the first commercial reactor online will mark a major milestone in Oklo’s growth trajectory, validating its integrated build, own, and operate business model and positioning the company for subsequent revenue generation.
Reasoning: Document 11 (Published on 2024-11-14, Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript) mentions that the first reactor is anticipated to come online in late 2027 following the submission of the combined license application, highlighting this as an upcoming transformative event.

Catalyst: Finalization of 20-Year Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with Key Partners

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Pending further negotiations and execution following non-binding LOIs
Impact: Securing long-term PPAs with strategic partners (e.g., Diamondback Energy and Wyoming Hyperscale) would provide predictable revenue streams and reinforce market confidence in Oklo’s technology and deployment strategy.
Reasoning:
- Document 24 (Published on 2024-04-08, Letter of Intent for Power Purchase Agreement with Diamondback Energy) outlines a non-binding LOI with Diamondback Energy for a 20-year PPA.
- Document 21 (Published on 2024-05-23, Partnership Announcement for Power Purchase Agreement) describes a similar non-binding LOI with Wyoming Hyperscale for 100 megawatts of clean power. The non-binding nature suggests that finalization is an actionable next step, albeit with a moderate degree of certainty.

Catalyst: Strategic Partnership for Isotope Production with Atomic Alchemy

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Upcoming execution as part of expanding domestic isotope production capabilities
Impact: This collaboration is expected to bolster Oklo's growth into the isotope production market, addressing critical shortages in both the medical and industrial sectors, and diversifying revenue streams.
Reasoning: Document 22 (Published on 2024-05-13, Strategic Partnership for Isotope Production) describes an MOU between Oklo and Atomic Alchemy, setting the stage for collaborative isotope production, which remains pending further execution.

Catalyst: Deployment of Two Powerhouses in Southern Ohio

Certainty: 80% | Timing: To follow the land rights agreement and subsequent site development milestones
Impact: Establishing powerhouses in Southern Ohio will not only expand Oklo’s geographical footprint but also strengthen its market position as a key player in advanced nuclear energy deployment.
Reasoning: Document 26 (Published on 2024-02-01, Land Rights Agreement for Deployment of Two Powerhouses) reports the signing of a land rights agreement with SODI for the deployment of two powerhouses in Southern Ohio. While the agreement has been executed, actual deployment remains a future, actionable catalyst.

Catalyst: Iterative Deployment Scaling with Strategic Partnership with Switch

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Milestone-driven scaling over the coming years
Impact: The non-binding Master Power Agreement with Switch sets the framework for deploying up to 12 gigawatts of advanced nuclear power, which could significantly accelerate Oklo’s market penetration and commercial scaling efforts.
Reasoning: Document 10 (Published on 2024-12-18, Strategic Partnership for Clean Energy Deployment) highlights the strategic, non-binding Master Power Agreement with Switch aimed at scaling advanced nuclear power, indicating an iterative deployment process that is pending further milestone achievements.

Testing and Development

Catalyst: Advanced Materials Evaluation Under DOE Voucher Program

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Active collaboration with testing outcomes expected as the evaluation proceeds
Impact: The initiative to evaluate and test advanced structural materials for the Aurora powerhouse under the DOE Voucher Program is intended to enhance manufacturing efficiencies and scalability, directly impacting the performance and cost-effectiveness of Oklo’s technology.
Reasoning: Document 6 (Published on 2025-02-25, Collaboration with the U.S. DOE for Advanced Materials Development) outlines Oklo’s participation in the DOE Voucher Program, focused on the testing and characterization of advanced materials, thereby confirming an ongoing testing catalyst.

Shareholder Actions

Catalyst: Announcement of Replacement for Board Seat Vacated by Chris Wright

Certainty: 90% | Timing: To be announced in the near future
Impact: Filling the board vacancy left by Chris Wright, following his confirmation as U.S. Secretary of Energy, will reinforce Oklo’s leadership structure and support continued strategic decision-making.
Reasoning: Document 7 (Published on 2025-02-06, Board Transition Announcement) explicitly states that Oklo will announce a replacement for the vacant board seat in the near future, making this an upcoming and actionable corporate governance catalyst.

Other Key Events

Catalyst: Participation in Summer 2024 Investor Conferences

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Scheduled during the summer of 2024
Impact: Active investor engagement at multiple conferences (e.g., Evercore Global Clean Energy & Transition Technologies Summit, JP Morgan Energy Conferences) is expected to boost Oklo’s visibility, potentially attracting new investors and reinforcing market confidence.
Reasoning: Document 20 (Published on 2024-06-07, Participation in Summer Investor Conferences) outlines Oklo’s planned participation in several key investor events during the summer, representing a near-term event with direct market implications.